Bulgaria: Unlikely to form a stable government after the upcoming elections
Upcoming elections in Bulgaria, the fourth in less than two years, are unlikely to produce a stable coalition, analysts predict. The Balkan country, member of the EU, will therefore find itself in the hands of a reinforced presidency and in a gray and undefined geopolitical zone between the West and Russia.
The significant conflicts between the main political actors make it almost impossible to form broad coalitions that can muster enough support to envisage a stable government.
When asked whether the political formula of what experts a “National Salvation Government” now that the next parliamentary elections are possible on October 2, political scientist Georgi Kiryakov replies: “Bulgaria does not need a national bailout. »
“It’s a propaganda cliché”said Mr. Kiryakov, pointing it out “Bulgaria is not in such a catastrophic economic, financial and social situation that it needs a national bailout. »
Mr. Kiryakov believes that while there are problems with inflation and certain sectors of the economy due to the price of gas, this is not the case “disastrous. »
“It is necessary to have a stable government, including a coalition that does not emerge at this stage”he added.
The latest poll by Exakta agency shows that the centre-right GERB (EPP) party, the party of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, remains in a situation of political isolation as it is accused of corruption in the country by all opponents. The party enjoys the support of 26.2% of Bulgarians.
The centrist We Continue the Change party, which gave Bulgaria its last prime minister, Kiril Petkov, came second with 18.1%.
The Russian-leaning Bulgarian Socialist Party (12.5%) and the pro-Russian anti-European party are battling for third place Vazrazhdane (Renaissance) (9.5%) and the Turkish minority party “Movement for Rights and Freedoms” (10.3%), which counts on strong support from Bulgarian citizens of Turkish origin living in Turkey.
The pro-European Democratic Bulgaria party has the support of 7.5% of Bulgarians, while the populist There Is Such a People party, which caused the overthrow of the last reformist government that had been in power for just over six months, won 5.4% of the votes. The pro-Russian conservative Bulgarian Awakening party (4%) is just behind.
With the GERB party politically isolated and the We Keep Change party unlikely to garner enough support to form a government, political analysts believe Bulgarians will have to go to the polls for the fifth time early this year. In addition, they also believe that President Rumen Radev will continue to govern Bulgaria as a presidential rather than a parliamentary republic.
In the absence of a stable government, Bulgaria will continue to be governed by a transitional government appointed by Mr Radev. The country’s constitution gives the president extensive powers in the event of an overthrown government and a dissolved parliament. In such circumstances, he could rule the country with nearly unlimited powers.
“These transitional governments have unclear goals and priorities and, above all, are uncontrolled. There is no direct control over Parliament and the parties, which are the citizens’ representatives.”said Mr. Kyryakov.
According to him, Mr Radev may have an unspoken goal of keeping Bulgaria in that gray and undefined geopolitical zone between the West and Russia, to the Kremlin regime’s benefit.
The country’s pro-Western parties have sharply criticized Mr Radev’s interim government for its decision to reconsider its stance on Gazprom and try to start negotiations to resume suspended gas supplies.
“The disappointment of democracy and a permanent political failure in which people do not want to vote and the parties want to govern are the worst scenarios for Bulgaria after the elections”Parvan Simeonov, political analyst at Gallup International Balkans, told EURACTIV in an interview.
“I hope it doesn’t turn out at some point that nobody wants to govern and everyone expects the president to pull the chestnuts out of the fire”he added.
Mr Simeonov also spoke about recent claims that some parties are passing the buck to the President for being the only one in power.
“It’s not a ball; it’s a hot potato; They are looking for someone who takes responsibility.”he commented.
“It would be good if people didn’t decide to consider the Bulgarian parties powerless and chose not to vote. Especially in winter when it comes to quality of life. Parties can recognize this and look for compromise options.”he added.
“There is a polarization of society because of the war, although it’s not that big, because Bulgarians are far from extremes. But it affects everyone who is operationally responsible for power.”said Mr. Simeonov.
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