D-Day for the legislative elections, Secretary of State Justine Benin beaten in Guadeloupe
D-Day for the legislative elections: more than 48 million voters are called to the polls on Sunday for the second round of a ballot where Emmanuel Macron hopes to obtain a new majority against a revived left, while his Secretary of State for the sea Justine Benin was beaten in Guadeloupe.
Polling stations throughout mainland France will open at 8:00 a.m. and close at 6:00 p.m., or even 8:00 p.m. in major cities. The first estimates are expected at 8:00 p.m.
A day before the metropolis, overseas voters opened the ball by going to the polls on Saturday, as well as some French people from abroad, especially in North America.
In Guadeloupe, the Secretary of State in charge of the sea, Justine Benin, who played her position in this election, was beaten in the 2nd constituency, with 41.35% of the votes behind Christian Baptiste (DVG) elected with 58.65 % of the votes, announced the prefecture of Guadeloupe.
In total, 1,148 candidates will be in the running in the second round, against 6,293 on the first last Sunday, including 655 men and 493 women. Among the contenders, there will be 370 outgoing, 70 of them having bitten the dust in the first round.
This second round comes to close a long electoral sequence opened on April 10 by the first round of the presidential election which had seen the broad re-election of Emmanuel Macron ahead of Marine Le Pen.
But the party looks more uncertain in the legislative elections, after the surprise breakthrough of the alliance of leftist parties Nupes and the far right.
In the first round, the outgoing majority, which is running under the label Ensemble! (LREM, MoDem, Agir and Horizons), arrived neck and neck around 26% of the votes with the left alliance (LFI, PS, EELV and PCF). Marine Le Pen’s RN totaled 18.7%, or 5.5 points more than in 2017, ahead of Les Républicains and its UDI allies who fell to 11.3%.
So there are many uncertainties: what score for the left? If the presidential coalition wins, will its majority be absolute – it takes 289 deputies out of 577 – or relative, as the polls do not rule out?
– “Voice reserves” –
While more than one in two voters (52.5%) abstained for the first round, mobilization is a decisive issue in this heat wave weekend. In the 2017 legislative elections, abstention reached 51.3% in the first round and 57.4% in the second, a record since 1958.
“Will the Nupes succeed in mobilizing the youngest who did not vote in the first round?” For the outgoing majority “are there reservations in a legitimist electorate who would not have voted thinking that Emmanuel Macron’s victory was acquired?” Asked the president of the Elabe Institute, Bernard Sananès.
Voters will also say whether Les Républicains, who collapsed in the presidential election, are still able to weigh in the Assembly – even if some see them in a pivotal position in the case of a relative majority of the presidential camp, which should then appeal to the right to vote for its texts.
Finally, the ballot will also say whether the National Rally obtains a group, i.e. at least 15 deputies, which gives more means and speaking time. The far-right party only succeeded once in its history, from 1986 to 1988, during the time of the National Front, thanks to proportional representation.
The future of several ministers is also at stake. Including Elisabeth Borne, fifteen members of the government are in the running for the legislative elections and will have to leave the executive in the event of defeat in accordance with a rule already applied in 2017 by Emmanuel Macron.
If Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne does not seem to be threatened in Calvados, Minister for Ecological Transition Amélie de Montchalin is in great danger in Essonne, as is the boss of En Marche and Minister of the Public Service Stanislas Guerini, or again the Minister Delegate for Europe Clément Beaune, both in Paris.
Be that as it may, a reshuffle is expected after the election, if only for the posts of state secretaries, which have not yet been filled.