Legislative: can Elisabeth Borne remain at the head of the government?

What if, just one month after obtaining the post of Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne had already left Matignon? After the results of the legislative elections of this Sunday, June 19, where the presidential camp obtained only a very relative majority in the Assembly, all eyes are on the former Minister of Labor, who led the electoral battle. If Elisabeth Borne narrowly won her constituency of Calvados, three of her ministers were eliminated and more than 40 seats are missing from Together! to obtain an absolute majority. Enough to open a breach for the opposition: Rachida Dati of the Republicans and Louis Aliot of the National Rally have called for his departure, while the deputies of rebellious France have already announced their desire to table a motion of censure against the government of the Prime Minister, from July 5.

For its part, the presidential majority procrastinates, through the voice of the government spokesperson, Olivia Grégoire: “The question did not arise”, she explained on France Inter, this Monday, June 20, before to attack Jean-Luc Mélenchon half-heartedly: “The Prime Minister remains a Prime Minister who had the courage to go to the polls.” The government spokesperson confirms a reshuffle in the coming days, but does not answer the question: until when will Elisabeth Borne be able to remain Prime Minister, with a National Assembly without a clear majority?

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“The leader of the majority must take responsibility for the failure in the legislative elections”

Symbolically, if Elisabeth Borne has no legal obligation to leave her post, the poor record of the legislative elections weighs on her shoulders. “The head of government is considered the leader of the majority, advances Paul Bacot, professor emeritus of political science at Sciences Po Lyon. And the leader of the majority must take responsibility for the failure in the legislative elections, if there is failure. .” But in this specific case, it’s not so clear, he nuances: “It’s the glass half full or half empty. Together! has the majority, but is far from an absolute majority. We can consider that Elisabeth Borne has lost and must go, or that she has saved the furniture and can stay.

Added to this is the low score of Elisabeth Borne in Calvados, where she obtained only 52.3% of the vote. “She was elected with a score that remains modest, supports Armelle Le Bras-Chopard, political scientist and co-author of Women and the Republic (2021). She scored lower than that of the Macronist camp in 2017 and even in the presidential election of 2022. She only draws a little legitimacy from it. did not help”, notes for her part Delphine Dulong, professor of political science at the University of Paris 1 and author of the book Prime Minister (2021). However, she specifies that Elisabeth Borne is not responsible for the poor scores of Macronie: for her, the scores of the legislative elections must be read in the continuity of those of the presidential election. A statement supported by Thomas Ehrhard, lecturer in political science at Paris 2: “This vote is not a sanction against Madame Borne. It is an opposition to Emmanuel Macron directly.”

Le Maire and Vautrin slopes

But it is not so much Elisabeth Borne’s electoral record that raises questions, as what is presented before her – namely a National Assembly without an absolute majority. Delphine Dulong, who has studied the role of Prime Minister in depth, recognizes that in this configuration, “the Prime Minister is going through hell in Parliament.” However, Elisabeth Borne, known as a technocratic senior civil servant rather than an old political veteran, does not have significant political experience – on Sunday, she was elected for the first time. “There is opposition to maintaining Elisabeth Borne, including in the Macronian majority, describes Armelle Le Bras-Chopard. In the majority, some would prefer to have a more political, more offensive profile.”

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Two names, according to the political scientist, would circulate to replace Elisabeth Borne: the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire and Catherine Vautrin, president of the urban community of Greater Reims and already approached as Prime Minister last May, before Emmanuel Macron finally decides for Elisabeth Borne. Paul Bacot qualifies these two tracks: “These are certainly more political profiles, which have weight. But, for one as for the other, you have to be sure that it wins the consent of the majority of the group Together! in the Assembly, especially its left wing.” The political scientist recalls that some of the executives of Ensemble! had thus opposed the track of Catherine Vautrin last May.

“There is no other possible choice” than Elisabeth Borne

But could appointing a right-wing figure as Prime Minister not allow the government to get closer to the Republicans, who would become the back-up force it is looking for in the Assembly? Paul Bacot recalls: “The fact that Elisabeth Borne was presented as leftist only had inconveniences. The right was able to attack it. But she did not attract the voices of the left. She was denounced on the right, and rejected on the left.” However, a personality identified on the right would not solve anything for Thomas Ehrhard either: “The Republicans have already announced that they will be in opposition. It would only be an individual poaching, which would not bring majority support from the LR group.”

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Thomas Ehrhard also does not believe in a more left-leaning prime minister to reflect the rise of the Nupes: “Left-wing figures likely to join the government have already all refused.” For the researcher, Elisabeth Borne could remain at the head of the ship, quite simply because “there is no other possible choice, even within the majority”. According to the academic, the presidential majority should highlight the fact that Elisabeth Borne, in a month, has not yet been able to prove herself – and thus refuse to sideline the first woman at the head of the government since thirty years. The choice would therefore be a default choice. Delphine Dulong adds: “Recourse to low-politicized senior civil servants is also a way of solving the problem of the absence of a majority in Parliament.”

“No chance” for the motion of no confidence

But, even if Emmanuel Macron decided not to dismiss Elisabeth Borne from office, the motion of no confidence of the Insoumis of July 5 could decide otherwise. “We could have a double opposition against Madame Borne” of Nupes and RN, judge Delphine Dulong. Thomas Ehrhard, he believes that the motion of censure has “no chance”: if we add the votes of Together! and Republicans who have already declared not to vote for the motion, we arrive at an absolute majority. He adds: “Borne will not be dismissed by the opposition because they have nothing in common, apart from being opposed to Together!”.

When we talk about the typical profile of the Prime Minister in times of National Assembly without a clear majority, political scientists have only one name in their mouths: that of Michel Rocard, Prime Minister of François Mitterrand, from 1988 to 1993 , in the same situation. Political heavyweight, fine tactician, identified personality: Rocard’s profile is not the same as that of Elisabeth Borne. But, recalls Armelle Le Bras-Chopard, another non-negligible element helped Michel Rocard to carry out his projects: “He made great use of article 49.3 which makes it possible to overcome the opposition of the Assembly national”. However, since 2008, the use of this article by the government is largely framed. What make even a little more palpable the risk of an ungovernable France.