Legislative. The Oise could offer two seats to the National Rally
The campaign for the legislative elections ends this Friday, June 10 at midnight. The opportunity to review the forces present in each district of the Oise. A department that could well offer one or two seats to the National Rally: it would already be an event when the movement should not send more than 50 deputies to Paris, in the most optimistic scenario.
For the first constituency (Beauvais Nord), Victor Habert Dassault seems to be the big favorite. Only a year ago, when he had to succeed his uncle, he beat all the competition, without experience and campaigning. Why should it be any different this time when he now has a little more experience and a little more visibility? Especially when the opposition seems weak. Nobody knows the Macronist candidate, the candidate of the National Rally is not the one expected and is just as unknown. There remains Nupes and Roxane Lundy with real local roots. Will she join Dassault in the second round? Or will it be the RN candidate instead?
The second constituency (Beauvais West) could well offer itself to the extreme right. Philippe Ballard, a former TV journalist acts as a spectacular parachute. Marine Le Pen herself feels that the second circo could well fall into her lap, especially given the figures for the last presidential election: more than 57%. Opposite, the outgoing Agnès Thill ex LREM now passed to the UDI will try to keep her seat, competed by Chanez Herbanne representing Édouard Philippe and therefore Macron. Another right-wing candidate, Ludovic Catanié, dissident LR, will he siphon off crucial votes? And finally, favor the Nupes represented by Annick Prévot? The identity of the candidate present against Ballard in the second round seems to be the only unknown.
In the 3rd district (Creil / Méru / Montataire), Can Christophe Dietrich do it? The very media (more media than the outgoing deputy Pascal Bois), mayor of Laigneville has rather the wind in its sails lately. His aggressive communication on social media, although sometimes labeled as populist, speaks to voters. It was with a score worthy of a banana republic that he was re-elected mayor of Laigneville in 2020: more than 87%… But a constituency is not a village and the discreet Pascal Bois hopes once again to be elected on its label. La Nupes and Valérie Labatut, however, made a remarkable campaign, and what is more, surfs on the Mélenchon wave, and very good results for the left in this canton in the last presidential election.
The 4th district (Chantilly / Pont) is probably not the most indecisive. With a new label, Eric Woerth (now a macronist and no longer for LR) will be in conquered lands. If he narrowly passed last time, he retains a certain aura. Will perhaps be slightly chipped by his desertion from the LR. Opposite, he will be opposed to his friend Arnaud Dumontier, who has remained faithful to the Republicans. And to Sophie Reynal, a history of the Republic in March who plays her card. The National Rally will be represented by its departmental president Audrey Hafez, not the most media-friendly of the candidates. Finally, on this “right” Circo the Nupes part undoubtedly beaten with Mohamed Assam. So who is against Woerth? Dumontier or Hafez?
The 5th district (Compiègne West) has always or almost always belonged to the right. First to Lucien Degauchy, then to his assistant who became deputy Pierre Vatin. In front of him, he counts an old friend. As in Chantilly, we find a former LR who turned Macronist: the young Étienne Diet. A duel of Compiégnois in this constituency which has an environmental candidate for the Nupes (Luc Blanchard) and Myriam Lamzoudi for the RN, a candidate whose surname could scare the most radical Lepenist voters. In this circo, the RN seems behind the three centrists LR / LREM / EELV and beaten for the second round.
And if it was time by Michel Guiniot in the 6th (Compiègne Nord)? Already elected regional councilor and departmental councilor, the historic leader of the RN in the Oise has always broken his teeth in the legislative elections (as in the municipal elections). But in a territory (especially the Noyonnais) which has always loved the RN already electing a deputy, Descaves, in 1986 and departmental advisers, Michel Guiniot could finally go to the Assembly. The results of the last presidential election were very good for the extreme right. The right will engage in a fratricidal duel with Marc-Antoine Brekiesz (various rights) as opposed to Anne-Sophie Fontaine (LR). What to make room for the outgoing Carole Bureau-Bonnard (LREM) or create a surprise with the Nupes Florian Dumoulin?
The 7th district (Clermont, Creil, Nogent), the most central of the department, sees the outgoing LR Maxime Minot trying to keep his seat against his ex-partner in the department Ophélie Van Elsuwe. She too succumbed to the charms of Macronie. The left has sent a media figure into battle: the emergency doctor Loïc Pen, well known in Creillois and Nogentais. Could the almost fratricidal fight of the departmental advisers create an opportunity for the doctor-unionist on the left? Not impossible.
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