The RN in 2027, the great fear of Macronie

The RN in 2027, the great fear of Macronie

A president re-elected and not eligible for re-election and the real fear of having to give way “extremely”: this is the “Obama syndrome” expressed by many of Emmanuel Macron’s supporters, concerned about the record National Rally results and Marine Le’s strategy pen

On Saturday, La République en Marche officially becomes a “Renaissance” at the Louvre Carousel, a few meters from the Pyramid where the youngest President of the Fifth Republic celebrated his first victory in 2017.

“For those who voted today, Madame Le Pen… Don’t whistle them! (…) I respect them. But I will do everything in the next five years so that they no longer have a reason for the extremes to vote,” then introduced the new president.

Five years later, Emmanuel Macron was re-elected to the Élysée, a first in twenty years, and once again faced the extreme right candidate. But the latter won more than 2.6 million votes in the second ballot with 41.45% of the votes cast.

Covid, war, inflation, “there’s a big disruption,” Macron agreed during the presidential election. “All of this creates fears in our societies. And those who play with fears are increasing. And I haven’t been able to contain it,” he continued.

In June, the re-elected President lost an absolute majority. During the election campaign, many of the outgoing majority’s arrows focused on Nupes and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s claims of winning at Matignon. But on arrival it was the RN who broke their assembly record with 89 MPs.

“There was a real malaise in the parliamentary elections, a strategic problem that changed,” said one parliamentarian from the majority.

Since then, there has been a degree of unrest in Macronie, fearing that Macron’s decades-long legacy will be tarnished by a failed succession.

Emmanuel Macron on September 16, 2022 in Guéret (AFP – Emmanuel DUNAND)

Rep. Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet caused a shiver during a seminar in late August when she evoked the Obama scenario. An argument that Minister Stanislas Guerini, who is about to hand over the party, takes up in Les Echos: “The danger of a populist swing to the right is real United States, Donald Trump is not succeeding Barack Obama.”

– “Everything becomes possible” –

Born in December 1977, Emmanuel Macron first voted for the presidency in 2002, a vote that saw Jean-Marie Le Pen make it to the second round.

“Since the trauma of April 21, 2002, nothing has changed. The political and media classes are a people of sleepwalkers who don’t want to see what’s coming. They are outraged from time to time without drawing any conclusions from it, ”the future president wrote in his book manifesto “Revolutions” in 2016.

Mr. Macron “considered very early on that the RN family was his main enemy”. “He made a distinction between nationalists and progressives very early on, even before the Europeans (of 2019),” notes political scientist Jean-Yves Camus.

But this far-right specialist sees “no intellectual struggle against the so-called opponents” and doubts that “the course of the executive will win the voters of the RN”.

“We also need to look at the sociological makeup of the frontline constituency, which requires social responses,” he elaborates, referring to the pension reform where he says “no possible reconciliation between what the RN and the President see.” , sees.

“People don’t realize it. The RN is very popular,” warns another Renaissance MP, who, like many of his peers, is alarmed by Marine Le Pen’s “smart” standardization strategy.

“A centrist party usually holds the goose that lays the golden egg: in the event of an opposition with a far-right candidate, the left should turn to him, but that didn’t happen. So anything is possible,” says Benjamin Morel. Public Law Lecturer.

In 2027, this central electorate will be “looking for the new wall” against the extreme right, notes an adviser to an Elysée candidate.


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