The RN in force in the Assembly with the collapse of the “republican front”

The RN in force in the Assembly with the collapse of the “republican front”

With 89 deputies, the National Rally is entering the Assembly in force thanks to a demonization which has already proven its worth in the presidential election and the collapse of the “republican front” supposed to block the far right.

Its candidate for the Elysée Marine Le Pen, who had already obtained a score never seen in the second round of the presidential election, with 41.5% of the votes, expressed herself on Monday of her “surprise” when she hoped about sixty deputies.

Without a proportional vote and without alliances, she obtained a group almost three times larger than that which her father had chaired from 1986 to 1988 with 35 deputies. The RN now claims to be the first opposition “party” in the Assembly ahead of rebellious France, which should have between 70 and 80 deputies, and the Republicans (61 deputies).

This result, far from the projections of the polling institutes which credited the RN with 20 to 50 seats, is explained in particular by the carryover of votes, which can suddenly bring 30 additional elected officials, explains Brice Teinturier, deputy director general of Ipsos France.

In the event of Nupes-RN duels, the voters of the presidential coalition Together! 72% abstained, while 16% voted for the Nupes and 12% for the RN. And “it’s the opposite among the LRs”: 58% stayed at home but 30% voted for the RN and 12% for the Nupes, notes the pollster.

– Unclear instructions –

Jean-Daniel Lévy, of the Harris Interactive institute, also sees a “double phenomenon: of abstention, which aims not to obstruct the RN, but also of transfers of votes from the first round to the second round, which does not are not only RN voters”.

“The absence of clear voting instructions from Ensemble! did not allow the Republican roadblock to fully function” after “the + ni-ni + from the Sarkozyist right (which) had already dug the first breaches”, explains for France Info Gilles Ivaldi, researcher at the CNRS and Cevipof, specialist in the economic program of the RN.

Legislative: the clashes of the 2nd round (AFP – Simon MALFATTO)

The researcher puts forward three other explanations: a campaign of the RN “discreet and furtive, but on a theme which was at the heart of the concerns of the French: purchasing power”, a “strategy of demonization of the RN which has never had so much of effects”, and frames “that have managed to anchor themselves locally”.

“It is the result of a very long establishment, with elected officials from the Marine Le Pen generation, who came for her and through her, but also people who have been campaigning for a very long time”, abounds political scientist Jean-Yves Camus. .

Mr. Camus also notes Emmanuel Macron’s “too arrogant way” of exposing his policy and popular categories who see him as the champion of “globalism”, or the “guilty of globalization” of which they consider themselves victims.

– “Backfire” –

Emmanuel Macron is “victim of a flashback”, according to Mr. Ivaldi. “With his strategy of occupying the central space and the rejection vote against his policy, he let the Nupes rush in on the left and the RN on the right”.

In the event of Nupes-Ensemble! duels, the RNs stayed at home for half of them, but 30% voted for Nupes and 18% for Ensemble!, which means that a “part of RN voters wanted to pay for Emmanuel Macron”, underlines Mr. Teinturier.

The mayor of Perpignan and vice-president of the RN Louis Aliot did not rule out a Nupes vote to bring down the former leader of the LREM deputies Christophe Castaner, beaten by the RN on Sunday.

“Emmanuel Macron set up the match” with the RN by speaking in 2019 of a duel between “progressives” and “nationalists”, and “this way of bipolarizing French political life to death ended up giving the RN a status of chief opponent”, recalls Mr. Camus.

“Ms. Le Pen can say thank you to Mr. Macron”, was indignant on Public Senate the deputy LFI Alexis Corbière. “When you heat the glue by explaining that the ideas I carry are the same as the FN or even worse, that produces 89 RN deputies”.

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